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澳门新匍京怎么下载你内心中的总统是希Larry依然Trump,三年一次发布

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摘要: 美国中文网施而楼报道:本网转载过
《华尔街日报》专栏作家袁莉感受评论美国的文字。她曾任新华社国际新闻编辑和驻泰国、阿富汗记者,又在哥伦比亚大学和乔治·华盛顿大学读了新闻和国际关系。有着跨文化的阅历和..四年一次表达
每人心中自己的耶稣美国中文网施而楼报道:本网转载过
《华尔街日报》专栏作家袁莉感受评论美国的文字。她曾任新华社国际新闻编辑和驻泰国、阿富汗记者,又在哥伦比亚大学和乔治·华盛顿大学读了新闻和国际关系。有着跨文化的阅历和教育背景,她看美国大选,或许更吸引中文读者的兴趣。原文英语也附后,以备参阅。
共和党总统候选人佛罗里达州竞选初选夜, CNN
的两位政治评论员直播时发生了一段短暂的“交锋”:民主党评论员说前马萨诸塞州州长罗姆尼
(Mitt Romney)
骨子里其实是自由派,坐在一边的共和党评论员不干了,冷冷地回了一句:“他当然是保守派。”第二天共和党候选人电视辩论时,罗姆尼和另一位主要候选人、参议员马侃
(John McCain) 更是争相标榜自己才是最正宗的保守派共和党人。
美国大选初选进行得如火如荼,至少对那些整天盯着有线电视的人来说如此(我承认我是其中之一)。电视上的政治分析家对每位候选人的一举一动都拿出放大镜来剖析,而候选人们更是在辩论时争得面红耳赤。
但仔细听来,同一政党候选人之间在热点问题上的立场和竞选纲领差别并不大。既然如此,为什么还要花那么多钱和时间辩来辩去?自由派和保守派的区别在哪里?美国人选总统究竟选什么?
这些都是异常微妙而复杂的问题。就好象俗话说每人心中有自己的耶稣,每个美国人心中也有自己理想中的总统。
美国是个非常多元的社会,不仅有两大政党,每个党内又有极端派和温和派,还有很多不按政党路线投票的独立选民。这些人又来自不同的种族、民族、阶级、宗教背景和教育背景,价值观念和政策取向多种多样。在初选阶段,为了争取党内提名,候选人需要党内最极端也最活跃的成员支持。在获得提名后,他们又需要讨好温和派和左右摇摆的独立选民。而在每个阶段,候选人都必须调整自己的立场和政策提议以争取最大基础选民的支持,同一政党内甚至不同政党间候选人都会有雷同的立场和提议。
例如,罗姆尼当初任的是自由派聚集的马萨诸塞州州长,虽为共和党人,但在堕胎、同性婚姻和枪支控制等方面的政策和言论记录难免沾有自由派的色彩。而参议员马侃在共和党内以特立独行著称,在非法移民和税收立法上均曾与党内多数唱过对台戏。两人为角逐共和党总统候选人提名,各自都调整过立场。其实他们目前的竞选路线相似得要命,根本没太多可争的。但要说服选民自己才是最合适的总统人选,就必须打败对方。在辩论时他们并没有太多的政策性争论,只能一个吹嘘自己的经济管理才能,另一个大讲自己的越战经验,同时抓住对方历史上的自由派表现大肆攻击。
共和党选民怎么看这两个人呢? Jack Witty
在一家金融机构做股票经纪人,与妻子住在乔治亚州的一个小镇。他支持罗姆尼,因为他是个成功的商人,有出色的经营管理经验。罗姆尼曾任贝恩公司
(Bain & Company) 总裁,创办了贝恩私人股权投资公司 (Bain Capital)
,接手一度陷入丑闻和财政困境的2002年盐湖城冬奥会主席,一年内便扭转局面。当然对于把交税比作“政府镇压”的
Witty 先生最有吸引力的是,罗姆尼许诺上任后不加税。
还有一点也很重要,那就是罗姆尼人长得帅,被认为是最有“总统相”的候选人。
Witty 先生说:“我们美国人有点虚荣,喜欢长得好、会说话的政治家。”
虽然同是越站老兵, Witty
先生不喜欢参议员马侃。对他来说,马侃在移民等问题上的立场太象自由派了。
共和党人 Rick Sabol
则坚决支持马侃。他在一家德国制造公司任经理,和妻子住在宾希法尼亚州的一个小镇。他认为总统的主要职责是保卫国家,马侃在这方面最有经验。他也坚决反对纳税,认为刺激经济的最好办法是取消纳税。
Sabol
先生说他绝对不会选罗姆尼,因为他看上去太完美了,不够平易近人。他选总统的准之一是可以想象和那个人坐下来喝啤酒、聊天。还有一点是,罗姆尼在每个问题上的立场都在自由派和保守派之间摇摆过。
保守派和自由派的区别究竟在哪里?为什么每次美国大选候选人都必须先表明自己在堕胎和控制枪支上的立场?
我发现这是最令很多中国人困惑的问题,因为这些在美国人政治倾向中至关重要的社会价值原则在中国人看来有点莫名其妙。例如,保守派反对堕胎,但中国的计划生育政策已经实行了近
30
年,多数人第一胎后必须去堕胎;保守派认为持有和佩戴枪支是宪法赋予他们的权利,而中国法律严禁买卖枪支,民间也没有使用枪支的传统。从自由派角度来看,保守派的这些观点是从几个世纪前沿袭下来的,简直是太守旧了。
当然,就普通选民来说,并不是投共和党票的就一定是保守派,投民主党票的就一定是自由派。中间常有很多重叠的灰色人群,特别是在财政政策上,很多自由派人士也倾向于较为保守的财政政策。但对政治家就不一样了,特别是在两党初选阶段,候选人必须要吸引党内最铁杆的成员才有希望获得提名,立场自然要黑白分明。民主党人
Todd Achilles
一语道破其中的关联:一个反对堕胎的民主党候选人在党内不会获得太多的支持。
在这次民主党初选过程中突显的另一主题也很说明美国人对总统的期望:选 CEO
型的总统还是选领导人型的总统?喜莱莉 (Hilary Clinton)
作为总统夫人在白宫呆过 8
年,又连任纽约州参议员。她的主要“卖点”是经验丰富。很多民主党人认为这正是内忧外患的美国所需要的。而有希望成为第一位黑人总统的奥巴马
(Barak Obama) 被认为是 60 年代初约翰 –
肯尼迪以来最有号召力的政治家。英国《经济学家》杂志的一位记者在听他演讲后写到:“他讲的话我一句都不记得。但那种兴奋感却持续几天都未散去。”连肯尼迪的女儿卡洛琳也在《纽约时报》上撰文支持他,把他比做是和她的父亲一样能够给美国人希望的总统。
普通选民怎么看这两个人呢? David Chacon
是住在曼哈顿的一位建筑师,参与过北京中央电视台大楼的设计。他说他准备选奥巴马,因为他解决问题的方法令人耳目一新。住在西雅图附近的
Todd Achilles
也准备选奥巴马,因为作为宪法教授,他懂得政府运作的原理,而且他肯尼亚黑人父亲和美国白人母亲以及在国外生活的经验决定他对问题的看法会更全面。
80
年代从中国移民美国的金融分析师赵治平已经入籍。她是独立人士不能在两党初选中投票,但在大选中她最倾向于克林顿,因为她最走中间路线,最不可能作出极端、有破坏性的政策决定。她不喜欢奥巴马,因为他只有口号,没有实质。她说如果最后总统选举在奥巴马和共和党的迈凯恩之间举行,她甚至会投马侃的票。
也有人谁都不喜欢。失业的信息技术工程师 Tim Johnson
最喜欢的候选人、号称为穷人说话的约翰 – 爱德华兹 (John Edwards)
退出了民主党初选,但他既不喜欢克林顿也不喜欢奥巴马,更不喜欢共和党的两位主要初选竞选人。他说:“我现在非常失望。”
人人都希望最后当选的总统能代表自己的社会价值观念和经济政治政策倾向,或者至少能是个折衷的选择。民主选举其实就是妥协性的选择。甚至当你的选择在选举中被击败时,你也得接受这个事实,因为它代表着多数人的意愿。但这个结果的有效期也只有四年,四年后每个人又会有新的机会去选自己认为合适的总统人选。
管理咨询师 David Epperson
精辟地总结了美国总统选举的意义:“我们每四年进行一场革命。大家都清楚这个选择不是不可挽回的。如果我们真不喜欢这个人,四年后我们可以把他选掉。”
下页:附录英语原文:Bitten by the Election Bug Bitten by the Election
Bug I can’t vote in this country and I’ve been apolitical my entire
adult life, but I have to admit that I’ve been bitten by American
election fever. Many Americans are excited about the 2008 presidential
race. A new president could take this country in a new direction. People
are expecting changes and are filled with hope and uneasiness. That mood
is quite contagious. Li Yuan speculates on how the U.S. election might
play out in China.I’ve been through a couple of election campaigns
before, including the New York gubernatorial battle in 2002 and the last
presidential election in 2004. But for the former, I was a harried
journalism student at Columbia worried more about getting my assignments
in on time than really paying attention to the election. For the latter,
it seemed clear to me America would end up with the same president it
had elected in 2000, and I didn’t pay much attention to the issues. In
fact, what I do remember about the 2004 election seems somewhat silly
and trivial: John Kerry carrying a gun late in the campaign, for one,
and Lynn Cheney saying Mr. Kerry was “not a good man” after he brought
up her daughter’s homosexuality in a debate, though the daughter was
openly gay. What did these have to do with running the world’s oldest
democracy? This year, however, I started looking at participatory
democracy in a new light. Despite this country’s faults, every four
years, there’s a peaceful revolution, with normal people picking their
own leader. And what’s even better is that the choice isn’t
irreversible. If the President doesn’t perform, you can vote him out the
next time around. And after eight years, because of term limits, you
don’t have to do anything. I know this may seem decidedly unremarkable
to Americans, but when you’ve grown up in a country where the government
orders you to be part of a political process where you don’t really get
to choose who or what you want, it’s a big change. Like many Chinese
under 40, the system I grew up in turned me off from even the word,
“politics.” I went to college in 1989. After the events of that summer,
pretty much any talk about politics on campus died down. With politics
off-limits, my friends and I were more interested in pop music, dating,
getting good scores and good jobs. That’s not to say there were no
politics in my life. In fact, I voted for the first time in China while
in college in the early 1990s. I had no choice. One morning, without any
advance notice, the university told us not to go to class. Instead, we
were instructed to vote for representatives of the district People’s
Congress. I remember standing on line for hours to cast my vote, though
none of the people around me knew why we were there or for whom. But we
knew it was an official order from the university, and we’d better obey.
Having no idea of who the candidates were or even what they looked like,
my friends and I picked the candidate with a name that was fit for a
kung-fu master in the films we watched. I suspected that was how many
other students made their choices. He got elected. Ultimately, it didn’t
really matter much to us one way or the other. We’d learned to distance
ourselves from politics in a most-political environment. We all grew up
attending year-round political study meetings and mass rallies
celebrating International Worker’s Day on May 1, National Day on Oct. 1
and other events that were organized by our schools, work units or the
local government. Attendance was mandatory. So when I arrived in this
country, I was happy nobody could force me to go to political events or
write empty political-study essays. The 2008 American presidential
election has gotten me excited because there’s a strong sense among the
voters that this country is facing some challenges: A troubled economy,
a failing health-care system and a war dragging on in Iraq. Americans
are vigorously looking for the person who offers the best solutions and
who is most capable of leading. They’re expecting something new. Unlike
in 2004, when political stunts and jousting about gayness got headlines,
this time around, candidates from both parties are talking about real
solutions to real issues. George W. Bush is leaving the White House, so
whoever gets elected will be rolling out new policies, and that’s very
interesting to me. Though I have no skin in this game, I find myself
debating which candidate I like best and how the person would change
this country over the next four years. I can imagine many Chinese will
get excited for the same reason. Though we don’t get to elect our own
leaders directly, who isn’t interested in healthcare, income disparity
and the squeeze on the middle class? One thing that’s happening in China
along with the economic growth is the divergence of interest groups.
Under Mao, we all belonged to one class: the proletariat. Now, China has
more billionaires than any other country but the United States, and more
millionaires than France. China’s middle class is paying for their first
cars, apartments and overseas trips. Meanwhile, hundreds of millions of
Chinese, mainly farmers, migrant workers and low-income city residents
are struggling to stave off poverty. If they had the freedom to do so,
it’s not hard to see them forming parties like the Democrats and the
Republicans. I wonder how Chinese would respond to each candidate if
they could vote in this American election. And if this poll were held in
China, which candidate would win?

在美国选民选出新一任总统之前,没人知道在近期100天内将会发生什么。“从古至今从未有过类似的总统选举”,总统历史学家杰弗里·恩格尔说。他在德克萨斯州掌管着南卫理公会大学的美国总统历史中心。

克林顿乐观的说道:“所以不要让任何人告诉你,我们的国家很脆弱,我们没有。不要让任何人告诉你,我们没有他所拥有的。我们做到了。最重要的是,不要相信说‘我一个人可以搞定’的人”。

Clinton was more upbeat. “So don’t let anyone tell you that our country
is weak,” she said.”We’re not. Don’t let anyone tell you we don’t have
what it takes. We do. And most of all, don’t believe anyone who says, ‘I
alone can fix it. ‘ “。

在接下来的三个月,候选人日常将活动在哪些摇摆不定的州。有些州可能会从民主党倾向共和党,或者反之。

两位候选人都分别在他们党派大会上说了对手负面事情。特朗普说克林顿是一个世界级的骗子,因为她解决不了美国的问题。特朗普说只有他有能力和韧性可以做到。克林顿反问特朗普是否有总司令的气质。她说他曾用破产法来避免债务,让员工扛着包。

There are plans for three presidential debates during the election
campaign this fall. There also will be a debate for the vice
presidential candidates — Indiana Governor Mike Pence for the
Republicans and Virginia Senator Tim Kaine for the Democrats. The
debates will be broadcast nationwide so voters can watch the candidates
defend their positions and question their opponent.

Both candidates face high negatives from likely voters in the November 8
elections. When asked, many Americans have questioned, disapproved of or
rejected their positions. Only 31 percent of likely voters have a
favorable, or good, opinion of Clinton, compared to 34 percent for
Trump. Those numbers come from a CBS News poll taken after the
Republican national convention, but before the recent Democratic
convention.

Wayne Steger teaches political science at DePaul University in Illinois.
He said the 2016 presidential campaign has been unusual. But this is not
the first time two major party candidates faced mostly negative opinions
from voters. Steger noted that, in 1992, Hillary Clinton’s husband Bill
had to answer questions about his trustfulness. The future president was
asked about having relationships with women other than his wife while he
served as governor of Arkansas. His opponent, then President George H.
W. Bush, also had a trust issue because he agreed to a tax increase
after saying at the 1988 Republican convention, ” Read my lips. No new
taxes.” Clinton won the election, helped by Ross Perot, an independent
candidate for the presidency. 

在伊利诺伊州德保罗大学教政治学的韦恩·斯达格说,2016年的总统大选是不寻常的。但这也不是第一次两个候选人面对大量来自选民的质疑。斯达格指出在1992年,克林顿的丈夫比尔不得不回答关于信赖的问题。这个未来总统被问及,当他是阿肯色州州长的时候,有了和除了自己妻子之外的女性关系问题。当时的乔治布什总统也同样有着信任的质疑,因为他在1988年的共和党大会之后同意增税。“注意听,不会再有新的税收”。通过罗斯·佩罗的帮助,克林顿赢得了选举,一个无党派候选人当上了总统。

澳门新匍京怎么下载,On the other side is businessman Donald Trump, the candidate of the
Republican Party. Trump competed for the Republican nomination earlier
this year as an outsider. He promises “to make America great again.”He
has promised strong action to fight terrorism, illegal immigration and
crime.

The two candidates have very different ideas of America. “Our convention
occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation,” Trump said.”The attacks on
our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our very way of
life. Any politician who does not grasp this danger is not fit to lead
our country.”

我是布鲁斯阿尔珀特。

但现在预言谁将会胜出还为时尚早。因为许多政治观察家在长达一年对民主党和共和党将选谁将是候选人提名的观察过程中,最后的结果还是错的。很少见的佛蒙特州参议员伯尼•桑德斯一直努力持久的反对对克林顿的民主党提名。许多专家预言拥有比特朗普更多从政经验的共和党候选人将赢得党派的提名。

在今年秋季将有三次总统竞选辩论。且还有一场副总统候选人的辩论 —
共和党的印第安纳州州长迈克·便士 和
弗吉尼亚参议员蒂姆凯恩。辩论将在全国范围内播出,所以选民可以看着候选人为自己的立场辩护和质问他们的对手。

Clinton and Trump supporters say they are hopeful about the November
elections. Public opinion surveys show a close race. Bob Livingston, a
Republican and former congressional leader, said voters like Trump’s
strong opinions. They trust Trump to negotiate trade agreements that
will produce jobs in America, he said. “Some people are bent out of
shape about his comments,” Livingston said. “That includes a few
Republicans. But Donald Trump is speaking to blue-collar people who
haven’t voted Republican in the last 30 years. They feel he’ll fight for
them.”

一边是民主党的美国总统候选人希拉里•克林顿。她是第一位任命为美国主要党派办公室主任的女性。美国前国务卿承诺过要团结人民去克服经济问题和恐怖主义的威胁。

But predicting who will win is risky. Many political observers were
wrong about the year-long nominating, process Democrats and Republicans
used to choose their candidates. Few saw Bernie Sanders, the senator
from Vermont, fighting so hard and so long against Clinton for the
Democratic nomination. And many experts predicted a Republican with more
political experience than Trump would win the party’s nomination. 

另一边是商人唐纳德·特朗普,他是共和党竞选总统的候选人。早些时候特朗普以局外人的身份在争取共和党的提名。他承诺
“让美国再度崛起”。承诺用强有力的行动来抗击恐怖主义、非法移民和犯罪。

Perot won almost 19 percent of the votes, taking support mostly from
Bush. Smaller parties are also nominating candidates for the presidency.
Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson received 11 percent in the
recent CBS poll, taking equal support from Democrats and Republicans.

两位候选人都对美国发展有着不同的见解。特朗普说:“我们大会发送国家危机的时刻,我们警察被攻击,恐怖主义就在我们城市中,威胁着我们生活的方方面面。任何不在意这些危险的政治家都不适合领导我们的国家”。

No one seems to know what to expect in the 100 days before American
voters elect a new president. “There’s never been an election like
this,”said presidential historian Jeffrey Engel. He directs the Center
for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Texas.

11月8号的选举,两位候选人可能会面对来自较多可能投票选民的负面事情。当美国人提出很多疑问时,他们不赞成或者反对他们的立场。仅有31%潜在选民有肯定或叫好克林顿的观点,而特朗普是34%。这些数字来自
CBS 新闻的投票,投票时间是在共和党全国代表大会之后民主党大会之前。

Both candidates played up their opponent’s negatives at their party
conventions. Trump called Clinton a “world class liar,” who cannot solve
America’s problems.Trump said only he had the skills and toughness
needed. Clinton questioned whether Trump has “the temperament to be
Commander-in-Chief.” She said he used bankruptcy laws to avoid paying
debts, leaving “working people holding the bag.”

On one side, there is Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s candidate
for president of the United States. She is the first woman nominated for
the office by a major U. S. party. The former secretary of state has
promised to unite Americans to overcome economic problems and the
terrorism threat.

佩罗赢得了19%的选票,大部分来自布什。小些的党派也提名总统候选人。在近期CBS统计记票中,自由主义政党候选人加里·约翰逊收到了11%的选票。

I’m Bruce Alpert.

Joshua Scacco is a political scientist at Purdue University in Indiana.
He says many American voters have expressed concern about the Republican
nominee. He said they ”don’t see him having the commander-in-chief
qualities” to deal with complex world problems. If elected, Trump would
be the first president without military or government experience, noted
Jeffrey Engel, the presidential historian. Joshua Scacco said Trump’s
Democratic opponent faces questions about trust. He noted that the head
of the Federal Bureau of Investigation said Clinton had been careless
handing emails as secretary of state. Scacco said she must persuade
voters she can improve employment and the fight against terrorism after
being part of government for so long.

克林顿和特朗普的拥护者说他们对十一月的选举满怀希望。民意调查显示比赛结果。共和党、前国会领导人鲍勃·利文斯顿说,选民喜欢特朗普的强烈观点。他们相信特朗普的贸易协议的谈判将增加美国的工作岗位。“一些人扭曲了他的评论,包括少部分的共和党人,但是唐纳德·特朗普是在对那些在过去30年没有选共和党的蓝领人民说的,他们感觉到特朗普在为他们努力着。”

Gary Mauro is leading the Clinton campaign in Texas. He said many
speakers at the Democratic convention, notably President (Barack) Obama
and his wife Michelle Obama, corrected the “false image that Hillary is
cold and not trust worthy.””As for Trump, I don’t think he can keep
telling people that we need change and that only ‘I can bring about that
change’ and not say how he’s going to do it,” Mauro said.”I don’t think
that can work for the long term.”

牵领着克林顿在德克萨斯州宣讲的加里·毛罗说,在民主党的许多人,尤其是奥巴马和他的妻子米歇尔•奥巴马,纠正说“希拉里是冷酷和不值得信任的形象是不正确的。至于特朗普,我不认为他可以一直告诉人们我们需要改变,只有我可以带来这些改变,从不说我们怎么去做改变,所以我不相信他那一套长期有效”。

Over the next three months, the candidates will campaign almost daily —
mostly in swing states. These are states that can swing from (the)
Democratic to the Republican side, or back the other way, from one
election to the next. 

印第安纳普渡大学的政治学家 Joshua Scacco
说,许多选民表达了对共和党候选人的担忧。他说
“他们没有看到他有处理复杂问题的统帅品质”。如果他当选,特朗普将是第一任没有军事或者政府经历的总统。总统历史学家杰弗里·恩格尔说道。Joshua
Scacco
说特朗普的民主党竞争对手面临着信任问题。他提到美国联邦调查局负责人说克林顿曾粗心以国务卿的身份发邮件。Scacco
说她必须说服选民她可以将提高就业和打击恐怖主义放入政府的长期工作中去。

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